Introduction

Due to the spread of Covid-19 virus around the world, to date 14,642,861 cases of Covid 19 have been reported in 216 countries worldwide, with 8,735,298 recovered and 608,911 deaths. According to the hospital reports received by the Health Department of Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019, the earliest case was on December 8, 2019 and it reported as unexplained pneumonia from the traditional market “South China Seafood City”. Later, some research institutions predicted that the pneumonia perhaps caused by a new virus, [3] Yu X (29 May 2020). Since then, the virus has gradually spread throughout China.

[World map of Wuhan,China] (https://www.worldmap1.com/map/china/wuhan/map%20of%20wuhan%20world.jpg)

“A study in Korea found that the risk of influenza incidence was significantly increased with low daily temperature and low relative humidity, a positive significant association was observed for diurnal temperature range (DTR) (Park et al., 2019)”. Wuhan is located in Hubei Province and one of the largest cities in Central China. Due to the location of the Yangtze River Delta, Wuhan has a typical subtropical, humid, monsoon climate with cold winters and warm summers and the average annual temperature and rainfall are 15.8 °C–17.5 °C and 1050 mm–2000 mm, respectively, [4] Yueling Ma (1 July 2020).When we talk about China, because it covers a large area, it is the country with the biggest climate change per single country. Northern China, January is the coldest month of the year and Southern China has a monsoon season. The Southern China is prone to typhoons from May to December, but especially July to September and West China has the most extreme summer to winter temperature differences and the average minimum temperature in January is -11°C. Most of China is very hot in July and August. Many studies reported that the COVID-19 was related to the meteorological factors, which decreased with the temperature increasing, but their effects on the mortality have not been reported. Therefore, we assume that the weather conditions might also contributed to the mortality of COVID-19.

Thus, due to natural causes or other reasons, as the spread of the virus increased, the Chinese government decided to close some cities and countries. China was the first country to put a lockdown into effect in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus across the nation. The world was stunned by the country’s decision, but after two months of lockdown measures, the country has seen a huge reduction in cases. As first put Wuhan City on lockdown on January 23 and Chinese authorities meant no travel in or out of the city was allowed, even for those who had important medical or humanitarian reasons. “When the lockdown first began people were allowed out of their homes, but restrictions soon tightened. In some areas, this was limited to outings of just one member of a family every two days in order to buy necessities. Others barred residents from leaving, obligating them to order food and other supplies from couriers. When the policy later stepped up again, officials visited homes door to door to undertake health checks and force ill persons into isolation.” Then China started to relax some measures after 59 days the lockdown was first introduced and the government has ordered travellers from abroad to isolate themselves for 14 days at their homes or at government-designated centers as part of a quarantine process, [1] Kaisha Langton (30 May 2020).

Other than lockdown, Chinese government launched a series of emergency measures to respond to the challenges of the epidemic. Accordingly setup headquarters for the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic, all of the Provinces in Mainland China launched public health emergencies response and to encourage patients to see doctor in time, the Chinese government announced that the medical expenses for the COVID-19 Pneumonia would be mainly borne by the medical insurance and government. Also decided to construct two makeshift hospital within 15 days and supported to all researchers, Pharmaceutical companies for their research. Furthermore government was authorized to mobilize and expropriate all kinds of personnel, materials, transportation and related facilities to block the epidemic area, to restrict or stop the market, assembly, theater performance and other group gathering activities, to declare the suspension of work, business and class [3] Yu X (29 May 2020).

The virus is now spreading all over the world. “COVID-19 is a serious illness, and it’s much more dangerous than the flu. One Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) projection suggests that between 160 to 214 million people will eventually be infected in the US and that between 200,000 and 1.7 million could die.” [2] Nicole Wetsman (7 July 2020). Therefore everyone should know about the virus and protection methods. The symptoms of COVID-19 have ranged from mild, like those in a cold, to severe. Sometimes don’t require hospitalization, but cases are critical and can be die. The virus moves rapidly, “It also probably spreads when an infected person sneezes or coughs. Coughs and sneezes produce little droplets of mucus and saliva. If these droplets make it into another person’s eyes, mouth, or nose, they can get sick. The viruses in those little droplets can also fall onto surfaces, like tables or doorknobs — if someone touches that surface and touches their eyes, mouth, or nose, they can also get sick.” The dangerous side, there aren’t any proven treatments for COVID-19. Therefore it is important to protect ourselves and others. For that stay home as much as possible even if you’re not feeling sick, wear a cloth mask or face covering when you’re out in public, and wash your hands often, [2] Nicole Wetsman (7 July 2020).

Data Analysis and Results

Data

data(coronavirus)
head(coronavirus)

date	country	lat	long	type
2020-01-22	Afghanistan	33	65	confirmed
2020-01-23	Afghanistan	33	65	confirmed
2020-01-24	Afghanistan	33	65	confirmed
2020-01-25	Afghanistan	33	65	confirmed
2020-01-26	Afghanistan	33	65	confirmed
2020-01-27	Afghanistan	33	65	confirmed

Table 01: coronavirus data set

For futher analysis this coronavirus data set was used.

##       date              province           country               lat         
##  Min.   :2020-01-22   Length:87695       Length:87695       Min.   :-51.796  
##  1st Qu.:2020-02-18   Class :character   Class :character   1st Qu.:  6.611  
##  Median :2020-03-17   Mode  :character   Mode  :character   Median : 22.300  
##  Mean   :2020-03-17                                         Mean   : 20.848  
##  3rd Qu.:2020-04-14                                         3rd Qu.: 40.143  
##  Max.   :2020-05-12                                         Max.   : 71.707  
##       long             type               cases         
##  Min.   :-135.00   Length:87695       Min.   :    0.00  
##  1st Qu.: -14.45   Class :character   1st Qu.:    0.00  
##  Median :  21.75   Mode  :character   Median :    0.00  
##  Mean   :  24.27                      Mean   :   69.22  
##  3rd Qu.:  81.00                      3rd Qu.:    1.00  
##  Max.   : 178.06                      Max.   :36188.00

Figure 01: Summery of coronavirus data set

date	province	country	lat	long	type	cases
2020-01-22	Anhui	China	31.8	117	confirmed	1
2020-01-23	Anhui	China	31.8	117	confirmed	8
2020-01-24	Anhui	China	31.8	117	confirmed	6
2020-01-25	Anhui	China	31.8	117	confirmed	24
2020-01-26	Anhui	China	31.8	117	confirmed	21
2020-01-27	Anhui	China	31.8	117	confirmed	10

Table 02: coronavirus data set for China

*There are 33 provices coronavirus cases recorded due to type (confirmed, death, recovered) and due to date.

Data Analysis

type	total_Cases
confirmed	84019
death	4637
recovered	80193

Table 03: Total comfirmed, death and recovered cases in China

According to the table 03 and figure 02, total of recovered cases are approximately equal to total of confirmed cases and Almost completely large than to total of death cases. This implies that most of the confirmed cases were recovered. This is further illustrated by figure 03. Confirmed and recovered medians are nearly equal and death median is relatively low. Furthermore box plot shows that data of cases spread in large range but the medians of all types are low. This means most of the cases have less value.

province	confirmed_sum	death_sum	recovered_sum
Hubei	68134	4512	64564
Guangdong	1589	8	1578
Henan	1276	22	1254
Zhejiang	1268	1	1267
Hong Kong	1047	4	992
Hunan	1019	4	1015
Anhui	991	6	985
Heilongjiang	945	13	933
Jiangxi	937	1	936
Shandong	788	7	777
Shanghai	660	7	632
Jiangsu	653	0	653
Beijing	593	9	573
Chongqing	579	6	573
Sichuan	561	3	558
Fujian	356	1	354
Hebei	328	6	321
Shaanxi	308	3	297
Guangxi	254	2	253
Inner Mongolia	209	1	190
Shanxi	198	0	199
Tianjin	191	3	186
Yunnan	185	2	183
Hainan	168	6	172
Guizhou	148	2	148
Liaoning	147	2	144
Gansu	139	2	137
Jilin	133	1	108
Xinjiang	76	3	73
Ningxia	75	0	77
Macau	45	0	42
Qinghai	18	0	18
Tibet	1	0	1

Table 04: total comfirmed, death and recovered cases according to province

Based on table 04 and figure 04, province Hubei has highest confirmed cases (68,134) and secondly highest is Guangdong (1,589 cases). And also Hubei shows relatively high value than other provinces. Cases gap of highest to provinces is 66,545. Province Tibet shows only one confirmed case and it is the lowest. Quinghai is the second lowest province and it had 18 confirmed cases.

Figure 05 shows that all the provinces total confirmed cases and total recovered cases are relatively equal or completely equal. Also total death cases are very low compared to other type’s total. Some provinces didn’t have death cases.

\[ Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = \frac{Deaths}{Cases}* 100% \]

According to figure 06, Hubei has highest IFR and it 7%. Xinjiang and Hainan are Second and third highest respectively. When consider the all provinces, IFR is less than to 10%. That also shows the total death cases are very lower than total recovered cases.

According to figures 7- 10, figure 08 shows that, the number of confirmed cases gradually increases during the period from January to mid-February and it gradually decreases during the period from mid-February to March. Shows the maximum confirmed cases during the month of February and it approximately near to 15,000. The number of confirmed cases has been gradually declining since March.

Figure 09 shows that, the number of recovered cases increases rapidly during the period from mid-February to mid-March and decreases rapidly during the period from mid-March to mid-April. Shows maximum during March and from mid-April, the number of recovered cases gradually decreases.

Figure 10 shows that, during the period from February to April the number of death cases shows a gradual increase and decrease. While this is relatively low, there is a sudden increase in the number of death cases in late April and it near to 1,250.

Overall, the number of confirmed cases increases during the period from February to March. As the number of confirmed cases increases, the number of recovered cases increases at a relatively low rate from mid-February to mid-April.

Furthermore figure 11, Table 05 and Figure 12, clearly shows the observations shown above.

month	type	sum_cases
01	confirmed_sum	9802
01	death_sum	213
01	recovered_sum	214
02	confirmed_sum	69554
02	death_sum	2624
02	recovered_sum	39120
03	confirmed_sum	2924
03	death_sum	472
03	recovered_sum	36887
04	confirmed_sum	1677
04	death_sum	1328
04	recovered_sum	3272
05	confirmed_sum	62
05	death_sum	0
05	recovered_sum	700

Table 05: Monthy total cases

According to the figure, there is no relationship between date and cases.

province	confirmed_sum	death_sum	recovered_sum
Anhui	991	6	985
Chongqing	579	6	573
Henan	1276	22	1254
Hubei	68134	4512	64564
Hunan	1019	4	1015

Table 06:total cases of provinces near to Hubei

According to the table 06 and figure 15, total confirmed cases of provinces near to Hubei are relatively very low. That means the virus has not spread to other provinces like in Hubei.

country	confirmed_sum	death_sum	recovered_sum
US	1369376	82356	232733
Spain	238064	26920	138980
Russia	232243	2116	43512
United Kingdom	227742	32770	1367
Italy	221216	30911	109040
France	183088	26994	57898
Brazil	178214	12461	72597
Germany	173171	7769	147200
Turkey	141475	3894	98889
Iran	110767	6733	88357
China	84019	4637	80193

Table 06: 11 countries with the highest number of reported confirmed cases

Figure 17 shows that, US has the highest total confirmed cases and it approximately five times greater than to the second highest country Spain. Also when consider the total death cases, US has the highest but compare to confirmed cases, it relatively low. Recovered sum is also relatively low to total confirmed cases but it greater than to death sum. When compare with other countries, their recovered sum is approximately half of confirmed sum.China in the last.

country	confirmed_sum	death_sum	recovered_sum
Afghanistan	4963	127	610
Bhutan	11	0	5
Burma	180	6	76
China	84019	4637	80193
India	74292	2416	24420
Kazakhstan	5279	36	2223
Kyrgyzstan	1037	12	709
Laos	19	0	14
Mongolia	42	0	15
Nepal	217	0	33
Pakistan	34336	737	8820
Russia	232243	2116	43512
Tajikistan	729	21	0
Vietnam	288	0	262

Table 07: Boder counries of China

According to figure 18, only Russia, Pakistan and India has relatively high total cases compare to other border countries. Out of those 3 countries, Russia has the highest number of confirmed cases and it is over 200000. Russia’s recovered sum is lower than China’s and higher than India’s. And the recovered sum is very low compared to the number of confirmed cases in Russia. The situation is similar in India and Pakistan.

Conclusins and Discussion

Main objective in this report is to analyze the coronavirus situation in China. To come across these findings, coronavirus data set was used. The study established that Hubei province had highest coronavirus confirmed, recovery and death cases compared to other counties. Also that total values are really higher than to other provinces. This implies that the steps taken by the Chinese government to spread the virus in China have been successful. This is because as the spread of the virus in Hubei province increased, steps were taken to lockdown those provinces and cities. Because of that in other provinces of China, the number of confirmed cases are very low. Provinces near to Hubei this also proved. Overall, the number of confirmed cases and recovered cases in China is close compared to other countries. From February to May, the virus spreads rapidly from February to March, and patients recover at a relatively slow rate between mid-February and April.

China is the country where the virus originated. But the number of reported cases in China is low compared to other countries. Especially with US. China is also the country with the highest number of cured patients compared to the reported number. Similar situation on when compared with border countries of China. Confirmed cases in China was lower than to Russia. Pakistan, India and Russia recovered cases were relatively lower than to confirmed cases. This shows that the actions taken by the Chinese government to control the virus have been successful. Also that some other countries have not taken appropriate actions or there has been a delay in taking actions.

In the coronavirus data set there are some negative values in cases column and it was a bit problematic. According to this data set cases values cannot be negative and when calculations are done with negative values, the final results can vary considerably. Therefore, calculations were made regardless of those negative values. More accurate results could not be expected, but relatively accurate results were obtained than before. It is my opinion that this will not make a significant difference to the end result. Analysis of the spread of the virus in China showed that nearly 69,000 patients were reported in Hubei province alone, where the coronavirus is thought to have originated, but the total number of patients in all other provinces is less than 2,000. This made it difficult to obtain clear graphs of data representation in China. The same problem was seen in figures 03, 04, 05, and 13. Therefore in those cases, had to take the log values of cases. Hope that this analysis, which avoids such problems, will be helpful in gaining an understanding of the coronavirus status in China.

References

[1] Kaisha Langton. May 30, 2020. China lockdown: How long was China on lockdown?. Available from: (https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1257717/china-lockdown-how-long-was-china-lockdown-timeframe-wuhan )

[2] Nicole Wetsman. July 07, 2020. Everything you need to know about the coronavirus, THE WERGE. ( https://www.theverge.com/ )

[3] Yu x, Li N. May 14, 2020. How Did Chinese Government Implement Unconventional Measures Against COVID-19 Pneumonia. Dovepress. 2020:13 Pages 491—499. DOI :https://doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S251351

[4] Yueling Ma, Yadong Zhao, Jiangtao Liu, Xiaotao He, Bo Wang, Shihua Fu, Jun Yan, Jingping Niu, Ji Zhou and Bin Luo. July 01, 2020. Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Science of The Total Environment : 724. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138226

Coronavirus Situation In China